陕西理工大学学报（自然科学版）

以汉中市2014—2023年环境质量和经济发展的统计数据为依据，基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论，采用统计学分析方法建立了多种环境指标与汉中市人均GDP之间的最优拟合模型。研究结果表明，汉中市大气污染物中的PM₁₀、PM_2.5、NO₂和O₃的年均浓度与人均GDP呈现出倒“N”型曲线，CO的年均浓度与人均GDP的拟合曲线呈“N”型；大气中的SO₂、地表水中的生化需氧量、氨氮、化学需氧量、总氮、总磷的年均浓度及工业三废排放量与人均GDP均呈现出较明显的倒“U”型关系。整体上看，现阶段汉中市环境质量呈现逐步向好的趋势，目前正处于巩固生态保护成果的关键阶段，仍面临一定的压力。建议通过加大环保投入、加强环境监管和治理、优化产业结构等手段促进环境与经济的长期协调发展。

According to the statistical data of environmental quality and economic development of Hanzhong city from 2014 to 2023, the optimal fitting models between various environmental indicators and per capita GDP of Hanzhong city were established based on the statistical analysis and the theory of environmental Kuznets curve. The results of research showed that the average annual concentrations of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ in Hanzhong showed inverted N-shaped curves with per capita GDP. The concentration of CO showed a N-shaped curve. The average annual concentration of SO2 in the atmosphere and the concentration of biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen and total phosphorus in surface water showed inverted U-shaped curves. At the same time, the emissions of industrial waste gas, industrial wastewater and industrial waste residue showed obvious inverted U-shaped curves with the per capita GDP. On the whole, the environmental quality of Hanzhong showed a gradually better trend at this stage. It was at the crunch stage of consolidating achievement of the ecological protection with heavy pressure still exists. The long-term coordinated development of environment and economy can be promoted by increasing investment in environmental protection, strengthening environmental supervision and governance and optimizing industrial structure.